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 Interesting global business demographics 
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Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 2:48 pm
Posts: 160
Post Interesting global business demographics
Some real food for thought here, considering the growth in the numbers of South African entrepreneurs targeting the international export market.

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The baby boom generation in the United States created an unusually strong economic boom that began in 1983 and will peak around 2010.

This is due to the consumer spending and productivity cycle that peaks between ages 46 and 50, corresponding to 010 for the baby boomers. Japan’s baby boom spending cycle peaked in 1989, 20 years ahead of the that of the United States, and as a result, the Japanese economy saw an extended downturn from 1990 into 2003, much as the United States and many developed countries will see from 2011 into 2023 or so.

So, what’s the picture for the rest of the world, and most important, how does your business profit from the change?

The greatest bubble in the history of global population is forecast to peak around 2065. (See chart right.) We will see population first peak in developed countries in a cascade, starting with Japan in 2000, broader Europe in 2005, and then North America around 2040.

The trends in North America peak later largely due to higher immigration rates and higher birth rates among those immigrants. There will then be a succession of continued booms throughout most of the developing countries that will peak in a succession, with China first around 2030, then Southeast Asia/India and South America around 2065, and Africa last, by 2100.

Because economic booms are caused by waves of population growth, we will see a cascade of continued economic booms around the world, especially in Asia, over the coming decades after our own boom peaks around 2010. But unlike Europe, North America has a substantial echo baby boom that will create a less dynamic economic boom from around 2023 into around 2050, before we similarly see a long-term decline both in population and in economic growth.

After 2010, Europe will see a very long-term slide in economic growth, as will Japan after 2020.

In addition to overall population growth, we can use age distribution statistics from the United Nations to project when baby boom generations in different countries will peak in their present spending waves. Europe is a mixed bag, with many Scandinavian, Russian and Eastern European countries already peaking.

Most of Western Europe will peak between 2010 and 2015. Spain and Portugal will not peak until around 2020, as will Japan’s final echo baby boom. China and South Korea’s spending waves will peak between 2015 and 2020, but countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan will peak around 2010, similar to North America and Europe.

Most of the developing countries in Asia and South America will see their later baby boom spending waves peak ahead of their total population between 2040 and 2060.

The implications for businesses are clear. We are about to see the greatest boom in U.S. and European history peak around 2010, followed by a slowing economy into around 2023. With no growth in consumer demand in these markets, you will have a difficult time growing your business.

Consider developing relationships with trade and industry groups, such as the local chamber of commerce or its equivalent, in the countries with positive demographic trends. In this age of global communication, such relationships have never been easier to foster.

Furthermore, with tax rates likely to rise in the developed world, it might make sense to keep your profits in these emerging economies, if regulations allow.

Businesses should be looking for opportunities to increase their exposure to these growing global demographic markets today, but more critically, take advantage of the initial U.S. and global slowdown between 2011 and 2014 to invest in these countries at a lower cost when the chips are down.

Asian and South American countries will fall initially, along with the United States, but are likely to rebound strongly from the downturn.

Investors similarly should be moving out of U.S. and international stocks by mid- to late 2010 and move in to defensive, high-quality fixed income portfolios. Then you can start investing in stocks in Asia and South America, along with late-stage U.S. industries such as health care after the likely next stock crash between late 2010 and early 2013.

This global population peak will be the first since we came into the last Ice Age more than 20,000 years ago. It is likely to be the largest demographic event in modern history. Make sure you are prepared for it.

HARRY S. DENT JR. is a noted author who has written several books, including two best sellers. He has appeared on “Good Morning America,â€

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Ben Botes
http://www.businessplanwhiz.co.za - business plan software
http://www.sabusinessplans.co.za - business plan
http://www.investorsnetwork.co.za - business finance


Tue Jan 02, 2007 1:29 pm
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